The opinion polls in the United States show Barack Obama and his Republican opponent Mitt Romney are neck-and-neck (at 48 per cent of the vote each) in the run up to polling day in the US presidential election next Tuesday, 6^th November, with Obama ahead in some of the key ‘swing states’. It’s could be close!

KENYA FORUM US ELECTION NIGHT REPORTS

The Kenya Forum will be running a continuous posting from the early hours of Wednesday 7^thNovember (starting about 3.30am Nairobi time) reporting the results as they come in with commentary and analysis from our team, including a US-based political scientist, ‘APJB’ giving his views as the news comes in.

The Kenya Forum will welcome comments on the night from our many readers in Kenya and around the world and we will publish them live (if they are polite and do not break the laws of the Republic of Kenya!).

BLOOMBERG AND CHRISTIE SUPPORT OBAMA

APJB has written to the Kenya Forum from the USA this morning to say:

Right now things seem to be improving for Obama.  He did a good job with the hurricane response, and New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie declaring their support for President Obama can’t hurt, although he already had their states in the bag and their endorsement won’t matter much in other states.

HEAVY EARLY VOTING – COULD HELP THE REPUBLICANS?

I think most people have made up their minds in any case.  I voted today and early voting is very heavy.  Usually, heavy early voting helps Republicans a bit, so that is worrying for Democrats.  But I know the Obama machine is really geared up in Ohio after what happened last time.  I also know that they are strong in Nevada, and that in Wisconsin things are moving his way, even though the Republican Vice-Presidential candidate Paul Ryan is from Wisconsin.

THE MINORITY VOTERS

Everyone I know in the political science world is worried about the effects of the Republican efforts to suppress minority voting in the competitive states.  That is a big unknown, but the effect could easily mean that Ohio and even Pennsylvania could be picked off by Romney, giving him the election.

“IT WILL BE CLOSE”

It looks like 290 Electoral College votes for Obama is a good bet, which also would mean that Ohio could be lost and Obama could still squeak through.

It will be close, that much appears certain.