KENYA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: NO OUTRIGHT WINNER IN THE FIRST ROUND

The opinion poll conducted by Strategic Research published today in The Star confirms that if the election for President of Kenya was held today, no one candidate would get 50%+1 required to win outright in the first round.

Raila Odinga, on an estimated 32.7% or the vote, has slipped down in the polls over recent months and is some 17% short of the winning threshold in the first round of voting.

Uhuru Kenyatta’s popularity also appears to have declined has from around 24% in a similar poll in March, although this could be as a result of Musalia Mudavadi’s announcement that he wants to run for the presidency taking votes from Kenyatta.

Now that he is, for the time being, a candidate in the presidential race it is no surprise that Mudavadi’s positive standing with the electorate has increased, up from 1%-2% in the early part of this year to around 7% in this opinion poll.

KENYA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: INTO THE SECOND ROUND…

The question is, with only the top two candidates going through to the second round, where will the votes of other candidates go to?

In a Raila Odinga vs Uhuru Kenyatta run-off, the first round votes for Ruto, Mudavadi, Kiyapi, Saitoti and Jirongo would probably split 50/50 to each candidate. Kenyatta would in all likelihood pick up the majority of Musyoka, Karua and Kenneth’s votes with Odinga getting the majority of Tuju and Wamalwa’s first round votes. Raila Odinga would be the winner over Kenyatta with a margin of perhaps 8%.

In a Raila vs Mudavadi run-off, Mudavadi could expect to receive the majority of the first-round votes from Kenyatta, Ruto, Musyoka, Karua and Jirongo, with Raila getting the majority from Tuju. The first round votes for Wamalwa, Kiyapi and Saitoti would more likely split 50/50. Again Raila Odinga would probably win in the second round with a margin of about 4% over Mudavadi.

“UNDECIDEDS” AND THE SWING THING

However, Strategic Research noted the increase in “undecided” voters which their poll puts at around 12% of the electorate, plus there’s a margin of error on the poll of +/-1.6%. “Undecided” voters often don’t vote but if they do then the outcome of the election will be decided by which way they swing in the second round.