U.S.–Iran Missile Strikes: Implications for Africa’s Economy and Security

Tensions between the United States and Iran have soared following a dramatic escalation: U.S. warplanes and missiles struck Iran’s nuclear facilities, and Tehran responded with missile fire against U.S. bases in the Gulf.

This conflict, triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump after he authorised airstrikes on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities, now holds significant implications, not only for the Middle East but for Africa, including Kenya, with oil supply chains at risk and diplomatic tensions rising, analysts warn of potential ripple effects across African economies, trade routes, and political alliances.

What happened and why

In the early hours of June 22, U.S. B‑2 stealth bombers and a submarine fired 75 precision-guided munitions, including bunker-buster bombs and Tomahawks, targeting three key nuclear enrichment sites in Iran: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Built deep underground, Fordow is one of Iran’s most secure uranium enrichment facilities—hidden inside a mountain near Iran’s holy city of Qom.

President Trump hailed the operation as a “spectacular military success,” saying the sites were “completely and totally obliterated,” though U.S. and allied intelligence acknowledge that Iran may have relocated enriched uranium before the airstrikes. “NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE!” Trump added on Truth Social, while also warning of further action if Iran does not choose diplomacy.

Iran quickly vowed to retaliate. On June 23, it launched a series of ballistic missiles toward U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq, an operation described by Tehran as retribution for U.S. aggression. The missiles were largely intercepted, and casualties were avoided thanks to advance coordination with local governments.

Impact of the US/Iran conflict for Africa

Africa could face significant security and economic impacts if the conflict escalates. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage carrying about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil, faces potential disruption if Iran decides to impose a blockade, a scenario already under discussion in Tehran. This could drive global fuel prices up, affecting Africa’s economy, including rising transport costs and inflation.

Iran’s parliament has already floated the option of closing the Strait of Hormuz.

Beyond economic concerns, the U.S.–Iran escalation could have serious implications for security across Africa. Countries hosting Western military bases or diplomatic missions may come under increased security threats, prompting the need for heightened vigilance and regional coordination.

Iran also has long-standing ties with proxy groups and political actors in parts of North and West Africa, and a drawn-out conflict may encourage extremist networks or fuel instability in fragile states

Kenya has issued measured statements urging restraint with the Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary emphasizing the need for “dialogue and peaceful resolution,”. Other nations like South Africa and Nigeria have echoed this call, urging both parties to return to negotiations.

Global reactions and the risk of wider conflict

The international response has been mixed. While Israel praised the U.S. strike, EU and NATO leaders signaled deep concern. UN Secretary-General António Guterres called it a “dangerous escalation” and urged diplomacy, China condemned the U.S. action as a breach of international law, and Pakistan labeled the strikes “deeply disturbing”.

“The bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities by the US marks a perilous turn in a region that cannot endure another cycle of destruction. As I just told the Security Council, we must act immediately & decisively to halt the fighting & return to serious, sustained negotiations on the Iran nuclear programme. To avoid a rathole of retaliation after retaliation, diplomacy must prevail. Civilians must be protected. Safe maritime navigation must be guaranteed, “UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

 Iran has warned of “serious consequences” and insisted that its missile defense options remain strong. Trump, meanwhile, has not ruled out regime change, which Iran has described as “playing with fire”.

For the wider African continent, the concern lingers over economic instability driven by rising global oil prices, disruptions to trade routes, and diplomatic pressure to take sides.